I've been blabbing about this a bit but don't think I've blogged about it:
To better gauge the status of the world’s largest fields, the International Energy Agency (IEA), an arm of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, is conducting a survey of the top 400 reservoirs. Although the survey is not due to be published until November, early drafts of the report have been leaked in The Wall Street Journal – and the prognosis is not promising. “The world’s premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast,” the Journal reported in May, “a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand.”
(I read something else to the effect that the delay to November was to avoid messing up the US Presidential election.)
It's natural to speculate that this will cause a sharp upward revision in the costs of things directly petroleum-related, such as gas at the pump and plane tickets (philosophy job candidates: buy your APA plane tickets now!). Also costing more, although this might take a bit longer to shake its way through the market, will be everything that depends on petroleum for its production -- namely everything! Ramify this throughout the economy and we're looking at lean times for those of us without direct access to black gold.
The big hope is that people won't freak out too bad as the recognition of the new economic reality dawns, so that most of us will keep our jobs.
Bumpy ride ahead, kids.
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